Silicon Valley’s Next IPO Billionaires Are Coming. Nonprofits Are Ready for Them
9 min read
Summary
A decade ago, Ryan Carrier was a failed hedge fund manager watching as AI systems began to spin out of control. Facebook’s algorithms shook US elections, a Microsoft chatbot said the Holocaust was “made up,” and Tesla’s Autopilot killed its first driver. “There was no governance, oversight, or accountability,” Carrier says. To him, the AI-filled future awaiting his children looked bleak.
Carrier went on that year to found ForHumanity, a nonprofit organization developing tools for auditing AI systems. But it has raised just hundreds of thousands of dollars since 2016 and is still a minor player in the industry. But that could soon change, because ForHumanity is now among the many nonprofits around the world trying to rein in AI, get animals out of cages, eliminate poverty and sickness, and spread democracy that are eager to claim a slice of what’s widely anticipated to be the largest wave of philanthropy in decades.
Two nearly trillion-dollar AI companies, ChatGPT developer OpenAI and Claude creator Anthropic, are expected to go public soon, making hundreds of current and former employees ultrawealthy. Some of them are aligned with a philosophy known as effective altruism that encourages making impactful donations sooner rather than later.
Anthropic’s seven founders have pledged to donate 80 percent of their wealth, and the company has agreed to chip in one or three shares for every one its employees commit to giving, depending on when they joined and up to a certain limit.
Rough estimates by a tech industry insider suggest that Anthropic’s IPO, which could happen in September, may result in 15billionayearinadditionalphilanthropicgivingalone.ThatwouldbeenoughtoboosttotalUSgivingbyabout2.5percentannually—thesameasaddingfourBillGates’s,oneoftheworld’sbiggestdonors.Anthropicdeclinedtocommentonthetotalamountitsemployeeshavesetasidetodonateandtheorganizationsthatmaybenefit.Allthatmoneyisfarfromguaranteed.TheIPOsmaygetdelayedorgopoorlyandleaveemployeesclingingontotheirwealth.Industryobserversarealsoconcernedthataparalyzingnumberofcharitableoptionsandnaturalficklenesscouldpromptworkerstokeepmoreforthemselvesthananticipated.Butcompetitionforwould−bedonors’attentionisalreadyfierce.JackLewars,aconsultantwhoadvised13ultrarichtechandfinanceworkersontheircharitablegivinglastyear,sayshe’sheardthatemployeesattheAIlabsarereceivingasmanyas20unsolicitedemailsaweekfromgroupsseekingdonations.WIREDspokewith18nonprofitsandapproacheddozensmoretoaskhowthey’repreparingforthepotentialphilanthropywindfall.Noneofthemadmittedtosendingcoldpitches—atacticthatLewarsonhisnewblog,TheFundingAnthropalypse,[wrote](https://fundinganthropalypse.com/p/how−not−to−fundraise−from−anthropic)“hasnexttonochanceofworking.”Instead,organizationssaytheyarerampinguphiring,training,marketing,anduseofautomationtopositionthemselvestoattractmassivesumsoffundingandquicklyputittouse.One[jobposting](https://job−boards.greenhouse.io/educate/jobs/8041675)ataneducationnonprofitevencallsoutbuildinguprelationshipsatAnthropicspecificallyasapriority.“Everybody’sgoingtogoafterthesefunds,”saysChristinePeterson,cofounderofthegrantmakinggroupForesightInstitute,whichclaimstohavefundingfromAnthropicemployees.“It’sgoingtobeawildride.”TheInsideTrackLikemanynonprofitleaderswhospokewithWIRED,ForHumanity’sCarriersaysheisfocusingmoreontheworkitselfthanonfundraising.Butherecognizesthismaybeamomenttoshift,andhehasbegunwonderinghowtogetintoIPOsoireesinSanFrancisco.“Ijusthavetogetinthatroom,”Carriersays.BoYoungLee,CEOofthenonprofitAI4ALL,sayssheisattendingmoreevents,puttingoutmoreresearch,andaskingboardmembers,suchasAIscientistandentrepreneurFei−FeiLi,tointroducehertoemployeesattheAIlabs.HerorganizationtrainsyoungadultsacrosstheUShowtodeveloptheirownAImodels,withthegoalofdiversifyingthetechworkforce.Leesayssheissetting“ambitious”fundraisinggoalsbecauseshe’sconfidentthemoneywillcome,thoughintroductorymeetingshaven’tmaterializedyet.BuckShlegerisistheCEOofRedwoodResearch,aBerkeley,California−basednonprofitthatispartofagrowingsetofsmallorganizationspursuingwhat’sbroadlydefinedasAIsafety.Fromhisperspective,targetingindividualdonorsisn’tanoptimalstrategy.RedwoodhasreceivedmillionsofdollarsfromgrantmakinggroupssuchasCoefficientGivingandSurvivalandFlourishingFundthatpooltogetherdonationsfromindividualsandsubscribetotheeffectivealtruismmovement.ShlegerisbelievesthatnewmoneywillflowtotheseintermediariesandthencontinuetotrickledowntoRedwoodandothers.Hesayshewantstoacceleratetrainingstaffersonbecomingmanagerswiththeexpectationthatbigsumsofmoneywillenableteamstogrowandtakeon“crazyexpensiveprojects,”likeautomatingsafetyresearchandtrainingRedwood’sownmodels.Thenonprofit’soverallgoalistominimizetheriskthatAIcouldsomehowleadtohumanextinction,whichShlegerissayshefearshasa“reallystrongchance”ofhappening.AsubsetofAIsafetyresearchiscenteredonpreventingthetechnologyfrombeingusedinthecreationofbioweapons.VenturecapitalistGeoffRalstonrecently[helpedauthoranactionplan](https://bioactionplan.org/)thatcallsforraising2.5 billion over the next five years to address AI biosecurity. He plans to solicit donations from those who stand to benefit from the IPO windfall. “The folks at frontier labs understand the threat vectors created by AI better than anyone,” Ralston says.
Several grantmakers influential in effective altruism circles are preparing for the giving wave by helping newer nonprofits level up their administration and bookkeeping. The goal is to ensure more organizations are ready to spend the expected influx of donations. “We’re trying to build the port before the ship arrives,” says Stien van der Ploeg, executive director at Animal Charity Evaluators, which over the past year helped direct about 15milliontononprofitstryingtoreducewhattheyviewastheworstformsoffarmcruelty.Similarly,Coefficientismakingapushtosupportup−and−comers.Thismonth,itslargestdonors,FacebookcofounderDustinMoskovitzandhiswifeCariTuna,committed1 billion to global health projects. It’s a “one-off surge” nearly six times bigger than initially planned but made with the intention of creating “scalable opportunities” that can “effectively absorb much higher amounts of future giving,” according to Coefficient.
GiveDirectly, another organization popular among effective altruists, says it discretely raised a round of funding from donors to support its preparations for the giving wave. The nonprofit, which transfers unconditional cash to people in poverty or crisis, is using the money to bring on more engineers to automate its finance and HR systems. It’s also forging partnerships to deploy money faster during natural disasters and has begun developing a plan for “a global AI wealth dividend” to fund people in extreme poverty. GiveDirectly CEO Nick Allardice says “despite the uncertainty” around the IPOs, it’s a moment “worth taking very seriously.”
More Cautious
Some organizations worry they’ll be left behind because they’re removed from the San Francisco AI community or work on issues such as child safety or political disinformation, which may not overlap with the assumed priorities of potential donors.
One broadly shared anxiety is that the sheer amount of money could leave some causes with overflowing coffers, while other urgent issues may attract little funding. For instance, groups addressing the existential risks AI poses to humanity—a priority for effective altruists—are widely predicted to receive far more backing than those trying to improve human rights by, say, fighting mass surveillance or online harms.
That possibility has been keeping Marlena Wisniak up at night. She oversees digital strategy at the European Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ECNL), which works on AI policy and research, and has been trying to raise the profile of organizations that may be overlooked, especially in the global south. This month, she scored a victory when a friend who works at Anthropic donated 100,000toonegroupthatfitsthatdescription.WisniakisnowtryingtoconvincecontactsatOpenAIandAnthropictoshareherlistofhumanrightsandsocialjusticeorganizationsworthsupportingwiththeircolleagues.Sheisalsoencouragingthosenonprofitstoframetheirworkusingtermslike“theoryofchange”and“evidence−backed”thatmightbetterresonatewitheffectivealtruists.Afeworganizationsaredeliberatelysittingoutthemoment.Earlierthisyear,ModelEvaluationandThreatResearch,whichevaluatesOpenAIandAnthropicmodels,decidedagainstsolicitingfundingfromemployeesatthosecompaniesbecauseitcouldjeopardizethenonprofit’sindependence.Othergroupsareconcernedaboutreceivingfundingfromsourcesthatwouldlinkthemtoeffectivealtruismandscareawaypartnersorotherdonorsbecausethemovementhasbeencriticizedasinsularand[misguided](https://www.wired.com/story/deaths−of−effective−altruism/),accordingtoapersonfamiliarwiththethinkingofthenonprofitswhosoughtanonymitytodiscussasensitiveissue.(Acommunicationsadvisertoseveralorganizationsalignedwitheffectivealtruismbutnotauthorizedtospeakontheirbehalfsaysthemovement“hascontinuedtogrowitsfunding,talent,andimpact,andtheincreasingwillingnessofmajorfunderstoworkwithEA−alignedgroupsreflectsthatthesepurportedreputationalfearsareoverblown.”)Someveteransofthenonprofitindustryareurginggeneralcaution.Theydon′twantgroupstoneglecttheircoreworkbycontortingtheirprojectstofitamoldappealingtothenewmoney.It′salsonotlostonfundraisersthatthewealthisabyproductofbuildingAItoolsthat,insomecases,areworseningtheproblemsthatnonprofitsaretackling.“TherisktodayisthisindustrializedwealthfromtheseIPOsmaynotservehumangoodinhindsight,”AI4ALL’sLeesays.“Wehavetoavoidtheallureofeasymoneysimplytoappeasetheprioritizationofthewealthy.”Oneeffectoftheanticipatedfundingsurgeisalreadyemerging:Asphilanthropicfundingconcentratesinahandfuloffieldswithlimitedtalentpools,salariesarerising.Thismonth,Resolution,anAIsafetynonprofit,announceda160 million grant from Coefficient, the donor’s largest award of its kind. The funding combined with the “enormous influx of philanthropic capital” following the AI IPOs will allow Resolution to pay “well above nonprofit and academic norms,” the organization said in a blog post.
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