‘Gradually then suddenly’: Is AI job displacement following this pattern?
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Summary
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has claimed almost 40% of global employment is exposed to AI.
Although the majority of business executives surveyed by McKinsey now claim their organisations use AI in at least one business function, true enterprise AI integration remains in its infancy, with only 1% of executives describing their rollouts as mature.
One of the first job categories likely to be hit by AI is software development, with companies such as Anthropic claiming that AI will be writing essentially all of the code within the next 12 months.
Historically, technological shifts have often coincided with economic downturns, with businesses facing pressure to cut costs and improve efficiency, making automation more attractive.
Although J.P. Morgan’s chief economist recently estimated a 40% chance of a recession occurring in 2025, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said it could be around 50%.